Restoring Peatlands: Predicting Biodiversity, GHG Dynamics, and Economic Outcomes

Application summary

Peatlands are crucial for regulating greenhouse gases (GHG) and maintaining biodiversity, yet they have been severely degraded due to human activities such as drainage for forestry and agriculture. This degradation has driven the need for restoration but there is a need for predicting biodiversity recovery and GHG emissions under changing climate conditions in post-restored peatlands. Furthermore, the economic viability of restoration is often questioned when compared to more profitable land uses. My doctoral research aims to develop reliable models for predicting biodiversity and GHG dynamics in Finnish peatlands and compare management strategies—restoration, no management, bioenergy, and timber production—focusing on their impacts on biodiversity and cost efficiency. Key research questions include: (1) How accurate are GIS and remote sensing data in predicting peatland biodiversity and GHG emissions? (2) How do restoration and climate change influence peatland habitats? (3) How do different management strategies compare in promoting biodiversity and economic sustainability? By using biodiversity data (e.g., presence and abundance of red-listed and all vascular plant species and mosses), GHG flux data, environmental factors (e.g., climate, soil, peatland type), and satellite imagery (Sentinel-1 and -2), I develop machine learning models to predict outcomes. The economic performance of various peatland management strategies is evaluated using net present value calculations, reflecting future revenues and costs. This interdisciplinary research, combining ecology, geography, and economics, will clarify the trade-offs between biodiversity conservation, GHG mitigation, and financial returns. The results will inform future peatland restoration and management strategies, supporting both ecological sustainability and economic viability while preserving essential ecosystem services.